How is the region doing?
Is the Denver region making progress toward the future identified in Metro Vision? The plan outlines a series of performance measures to help answer that question. The measures help verify whether the region's communities' collective actions are moving the region toward desired future outcomes.
Principle: Metro Vision is aspirational, long-range and regional in focus: Metro Vision’s planning horizon extends 20 years and beyond to help the region address future concerns while considering current priorities.
We are in this together
Why does Metro Vision include performance measures? Individual communities and others contribute toward desired future outcomes in different ways and at different speeds. This set of measures serves to gauge collective impact.
Performance measures
| Measure | Where are we today? (baseline) | Baseline year | Where do we want to be? (target) | Target year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of the region’s housing located in urban centers | 10.0% | 2014 | 25.0% | 2040 |
| Share of the region’s employment located in urban centers | 36.3% | 2014 | 50.0% | 2040 |
| Regional population-weighted density | 4,850 people per square mile | 2014 | 25% increase from 2014 | 2040 |
| Non-single-occupant vehicle mode share to work | 25.1% | 2014 | 35.0% | 2040 |
| Daily vehicle miles traveled per capita | 25.5 daily vehicle miles traveled per capita | 2010 | 10% decrease from 2010 | 2040 |
| Average travel time variation (peak vs. off-peak) | 1.22 | 2014 | Less than 1.30 | 2040 |
| Daily person delay per capita | 6 minutes | 2017 | Less than 9 minutes | 2040 |
| Number of traffic fatalities | 254 | 2020 | zero | 2040 |
| Surface transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions per capita | 26.8 pounds per capita | 2010 | 60% decrease from 2010 | 2040 |
| Protected open space | 1,724 square miles | 2014 | 1,980 square miles | 2040 |
| Share of the region’s housing in high risk areas | 3.7% | 2020 | Less than 3.1% | 2040 |
| Share of the region’s employment in high risk areas | 1.8% | 2020 | Less than 1.6% | 2040 |
| Share of the region’s population living in areas with housing and transportation costs affordable to the typical household in the region | 41% | 2013 | 50% | 2040 |
| Regional employment | 1.8 million | 2014 | 2.6 million | 2040 |
| Share of the region’s housing near rapid transit stations or high-frequency transit stops | 14.0% | 2014 | 20.0% | 2040 |
| Share of the region’s employment near rapid transit stations or high-frequency transit stops | 32.3% | 2014 | 45.0% | 2040 |
2019 Measure Report
Performance measures are critically important in monitoring the region’s progress toward Metro Vision themes and outcomes. They are used to periodically measure outcomes and results. They also generate reliable data to help local governments and partners evaluate policies, programs and initiatives. To learn more or to find raw data used in the performance measures, explore the resources below.
Ahead of schedule
These measures are ahead of the pace needed to achieve 2040 target.
Travel time variation
What is this measure?
This performance measure describes the difference in travel time between peak periods of the day such as rush hour, and off-peak travel, when there is less traffic. The DRCOG Congestion Mitigation Program database includes estimates of travel volumes based on observations at year-round monitoring sites and temporary traffic count locations. These volume estimates are compared to capacity to calculate travel time, or speed.
What is the status?
The region is ahead of schedule to meet the 2040 target where the peak period travel time would remain no more than 1.30 times as long as off-peak period travel time on average. While the baseline level was already below this target, DRCOG forecasts that travel will increase at a rate greater than that of the region’s ability to afford to expand the capacity of the transportation system. Efforts to reduce congestion seek to beat that forecast.
Between 2015 and 2019, the region added to its transportation system capacity and improved management and operation of existing capacity. Examples include the Interstate 225 westbound approach to Interstate 25 reconfiguration project and DRCOG’s ongoing traffic signal system improvement program that reduces travel delay through improved timing and synchronization. This has helped recent observations remain level with the baseline.
Person delay
What is this measure?
This measure tracks the time people spend in traffic. Person delay accounts for the total delay experienced by all vehicle occupants. The DRCOG Congestion Mitigation Program database reports this average weekday person travel delay on a per capita basis.
What is the status?
The region is ahead of schedule to meet the 2040 target where each person’s travel delay, on average, would remain below nine minutes per day. The 2017 baseline was six minutes delay and is forecast to increase. With only one observation since the 2017 baseline, the region actually experienced a slight reduction in delay.
Since 2016, DRCOG has been using new data to use to understand and calculate travel delays. With on-board vehicle speed for parts of the travel network, DRCOG can replace calculations about delay that were previously inferred from traffic counts. Extrapolation based on limited observations under this new methodology is not warranted.
Housing in high-risk areas
What is this measure?
This measure tracks the share of the region’s housing in areas that are known to be susceptible to wildfires and flooding. While existing residents may remain in these areas, growth in housing could be prioritized in areas outside these high-risk areas as the region grows.
What is the status?
The region is ahead of schedule to meet the 2040 target where less than 0.9% of the region’s housing would be in high-risk hazard areas. The 2014 baseline share is small at just over 1%. Four subsequent observations show the measure declining under 1% in 2018.
Regional employment
What is this measure?
This measure tracks total employment in the region through county-level estimates produced by the State of Colorado’s Department of Local Affairs. The department's employment forecasts are central to local and regional planning assumptions, which form the basis for the 2040 target.
What is the status?
The region is ahead of schedule to meet the 2040 target of 2.6 million jobs. With the 2018 observation showing over 220,000 more jobs than the 2014 baseline, the region is over three years ahead of the pace needed to reach the 2040 target.
Reported observations are from 2018, and do not account for the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 public health crisis. The resulting decreases in economic activity and job loss could bring observations back on track, or even behind schedule for the 2040 target.
Housing near high-frequency or rapid transit
What is this measure?
This measure tracks housing proximity to transit at both rapid transit stations and high-frequency bus stops having 96 or more departures per weekday, averaging one bus every 15 minutes. Housing located near these locations is defined as being within a half-mile of rapid transit stations or within a quarter-mile of high-frequency bus stops. It is reported as a share of the region’s total housing.
What is the status?
The region is ahead of schedule to meet the 2040 target where 20% of all housing is near high-frequency or rapid transit. The extent of rapid transit investments and high-frequency service has increased, leading to inclusion of a larger share of the region’s housing, and an increase in the amount of housing. These trends together result in a 29% increase above 2014 levels, while the increase regionwide was under 10% during the same period.
Employment near high-frequency or rapid transit
What is this measure?
This measure tracks total employment in the region through county-level estimates produced by the State of Colorado’s Department of Local Affairs. The department's employment forecasts are central to local and regional planning assumptions, which form the basis for the 2040 target.
What is the status?
The region is ahead of schedule to meet the 2040 target of 2.6 million jobs. With the 2019 observation showing over 272,500 more jobs than the 2014 baseline, the region is over four years ahead of the pace needed to reach the 2040 target.
These reported observations are from 2019, and do not account for the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 public health crisis. The resulting decreases in economic activity and job loss could bring the 2020 observation back on track, or even behind schedule for the 2040 target.
On track
Regional population (weighted density)
What is this measure?
Density can be more than just a measure of how efficiently we are using land in our region. The population-weighted approach to measuring density averages the density of all neighborhoods (census tracts), giving more weight to a neighborhood with more people. This variant of a standard population density measure recognizes that the region includes a diversity of urban, suburban and rural communities. It increases more when people settle in and near neighborhoods that are already well-settled.
What is the status?
The region is on track to meet the 2040 target of a 25% increase in population-weighted density. Between the 2000 and 2010 census, the region saw this density metric decline by 2%. Since that time, density has increased by 10%, at a rate not seen since the period between the 1990 and 2000 census.
While the region is adding fewer housing units than during past periods of significant population in-migration, the impacts of this growth may feel more acute because it is more readily observed and experienced by more people as a result of the region’s growth in already populous neighborhoods (tracts).
Protected open space
What is this measure?
Land protected from development by governmental agencies and conservation organizations is known as protected open space. These areas are used for recreation, provide wildlife habitat and can even remain economically productive as farming or ranching lands.
What is the status?
The region is on track to meet the 2040 target of 1,980 square miles of protected open space. To reach the target, the region needs to protect about 10 square miles of open space per year between the 2014 baseline and the 2040 target. Based on the DRCOG Parks, Recreation and Open Space dataset, which compiles protected open space data from local governments and other partners, the region was on that pace between 2014 and 2018. However, the dataset shows only five additional square miles of protected open space in 2019. More annual observations showing this level of change would put the measure behind schedule to meet the 2040 target.
Because the DRCOG Parks, Recreation and Open Space dataset is subject to continuous improvement, open space that gets added to the inventory may help advance the region toward the target, whether or not the open space was protected during that timeframe.
Behind schedule
These measures are behind the pace needed to achieve 2040 target.
Urban center housing
What is this measure?
This measure tracks the share of the region’s employment located in urban centers. Urban centers are transit-, pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly places that contain a diverse mix of land uses and are denser than their surrounding areas. They are designed to allow people of all ages, incomes and abilities to access a range of housing, employment and services without sole reliance on driving. Urban centers are found throughout the region, and jurisdictions work with DRCOG to identify and designate them as such.
What is the status?
The region is behind schedule to meet the 2040 target where 25% of all housing is in urban centers. Since the Great Recession, real estate investors have sought out this type of place as an opportunity for well-connected, multifamily housing construction. Collectively urban centers have seen housing increase 27% above 2014 levels, while the increase regionwide was less than 10% over the same period.
Urban center employment
What is this measure?
This measure tracks the share of the region’s employment located in urban centers. Urban centers are transit-, pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly places that contain a diverse mix of land uses and are denser than their surrounding areas. They are designed to allow people of all ages, incomes and abilities to access a range of housing, employment and services without sole reliance on driving. Urban centers are found throughout the region, and jurisdictions work with DRCOG to identify and designate them as such.
What is the status?
The region is behind schedule to meet the 2040 target where 50% of all employment is in urban centers. Since the Great Recession, the region has seen significant job growth. Many of these jobs have located in spaces throughout the region vacated during the recession. As a result, urban centers have seen employment increase 10% above 2014 levels, while the increase regionwide was 16.8% over the same period.
Non-single occupant vehicle travel to work
What is this measure?
Many people commute to and from work alone: this is referred to as single-occupant vehicle travel. Increasing the share of non solo trips includes converting some of that travel to carpools, vanpools, transit trips, walking, biking or working from home.
What is the status?
The region is behind schedule to meet the 2040 target of having 35% of commuters use a travel mode other than a single-occupant vehicle to get to work. The observations remain level, as small changes remain within the American Community Survey’s margin of error. To be on track to the 2040 target, the region would have needed to see an increase to 27% by 2019. While the survey does report that more commuters are using modes other than a single-occupant vehicle to get to work, that has not been enough to expand the share.
Vehicle miles traveled
What is this measure?
This measure tracks the number of traffic-related fatalities, including automobile drivers, passengers in automobiles, motorcyclists, pedestrians and bicyclists. Information comes from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, a federal database compiled from local law enforcement reports.
What is the status?
The region is behind schedule to meet the 2040 target of a 10% decrease in vehicle miles traveled per capita per day from the 2010 baseline. After a downward trend between 2010 and 2013, this measure recorded steady growth from 2013 to 2018 to lose all progress toward the target and move more than 1% over the 2010 baseline. The 2019 observation remains above the baseline and nearly three percent off a trajectory that would be on track to achieve the 2040 target.
Reasons vehicle travel has been increasing throughout the decade may include a flourishing regional economy, an increase in commercial activity and deliveries, an increase of ride-hailing vehicle travel, lower and stable fuel prices for the longest period since the 1980s and an increase in vehicle fuel economy. These reported observations are from 2019, and do not account for the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 public health crisis.
Traffic fatalities
What is this measure?
This measure tracks the number of traffic-related fatalities, including automobile drivers, passengers in automobiles, motorcyclists, pedestrians and bicyclists. Information comes from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, a federal database compiled from local law enforcement reports.
What is the status?
The region is behind schedule to meet the 2040 target of fewer than 100 traffic fatalities per year. The five observations since the 2014 baseline have gone in the wrong direction, reaching 282 fatalities in 2016, the second-highest annual total fatalities since 1980, before coming down the following two years. However, annual fatalities moved upward again in 2019 to 270, the fourth-highest number of fatalities since 1980. The region has averaged 260 fatalities in the five years since the 2014 baseline, the highest five-year rolling average since 1980. While annual observations of traffic fatalities are subject to significant variation, looking back and averaging over more observations only reveals a downward trend that would not put the region on track to meet the 2040 target.
Several local governments have taken on “Vision Zero” or “Towards Zero Deaths” initiatives to try and eliminate traffic fatalities. In 2020, DRCOG adopted Taking Action on Regional Vision Zero, which seeks to establish a target for zero fatalities or serious injuries on the region’s transportation system. A future Metro Vision amendment will account for this new trajectory.
Surface transportation greenhouse gas
What is this measure?
Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Reducing these emissions can be achieved through cleaner and more efficient engines in trucks and automobiles, adding more alternative fuel vehicles to the region’s fleet and decreasing vehicle miles traveled. DRCOG and other partners estimate total greenhouse gas emissions from surface transportation sources based on modeling of vehicle travel, the mix of vehicle types on the roads, speeds and other factors. This is reported for an average weekday on a per capita basis.
What is the status?
The region is behind schedule to meet the 2040 target of a 60% decrease in surface transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions per capita from the 2010 baseline. Based on DRCOG’s most recent travel model results, there is a decrease between 2010 and 2015.
The forecast based on the most recent DRCOG travel model results anticipates a 37% per capita decrease in surface transportation related greenhouse gas emissions per capita. It accounts for larger gains closer to 2040 as vehicle fuel efficiency improves.
Employment in high-risk areas
What is this measure?
This measure tracks the share of the region’s employment in areas that are known to be susceptible to wildfires and flooding. While certain types of businesses and jobs need to remain in these areas, growth in employment could be prioritized in areas outside these high-risk areas as the region grows.
What is the status?
The region is ahead of schedule to meet the 2040 target where less than 2.5% of the region’s employment would be in high-risk hazard areas. Based on the observations since the 2014 baseline, the share of the region’s employment found in these areas has decreased.
Employment in the high-risk hazard areas increased by more than 5,500 between 2014 and 2018, which was a rate of increase that was less than that of total employment across the region.
No determination
Measures with data limitations preventing status determination.
Residents living in affordable locations
What is this measure?
Housing and transportation costs are often the two largest components of household spending. These costs are often interdependent – location can impact housing costs and transportation choices. This measure tracks the share of the region’s population living in areas with housing and transportation costs that do not exceed 45% of the annual income for the regional typical household as reported by the Housing and Transportation Affordability Index.
What is the status?
One should make no determination about progress toward the 2040 target where 50% of all the region’s residents live in locations affordable to the typical household. This is based on 2013 and 2015 observations which does not constitute enough data to form a conclusion about 2019 status.
Most of the progress may be attributed to increases in the median income. Lagging housing cost data used in the index may not fully reflect more recent increases in home prices and monthly rents.